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Futureskills Scotland

Expert Briefings

Futureskills Scotland are running a series of Expert Briefings. The purpose of the series is to make available the knowledge and experience of people who are experts in their fields. The series covers issues relating to the labour market, education and skills and their links to the economy. Each event involves an expert providing a personal briefing to an invited audience under Chatham House rules and the publication of the briefing paper. In providing this service, Futureskills Scotland is pursuing two of its aims:

  • to improve the availability, quality and consistency of labour market information; and
  • to analyse the Scottish labour market to inform policy making

Expert Briefing Papers

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Futureskills Scotland Expert Briefing: Key Labour Market and Skills Issues in Scotland (and beyond) - Professor Ewart Keep is widely acclaimed in UK policy and academic circles for his insightful analysis of education and training issues. In this paper, Ewart draws upon his wealth of knowledge and research experience to suggest some key issues for Scottish skills policy in the next decade. He identifies the major obstacles which face those charged with policy formulation and research in the area of skills.

Professor Keep’s briefing covers a large amount of ground. It raises some key questions for Scottish researchers, policy makers and practitioners. It is a challenging, constructive contribution to the ongoing debate in Scotland from an
acknowledged expert in the field.

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Futureskills Scotland Expert Briefing: How 'Smart' are Scottish Jobs? - This Expert Briefing presents the results of an analysis undertaken by the respected University of Cardiff academic, Professor Alan Felstead, on Scottish data from the 2006 Work Skills in Britain Survey.  The survey asked 2,000 Scottish workers for their views on skills and training and highlights a number of important issues, such as the polarisation of jobs in Scotland; the low-skilled nature of many part-time jobs held by women; and rates of training among Scottish workers. 

But, perhaps the most challenging finding from the analysis is the extent of qualification mismatch in the Scottish labour market, from workers’ perspectives. The Scottish education and training system has been successful in developing the skills and qualifications of the workforce. But it appears that the level of skills demanded by employers has not kept pace with this increased supply.

The recent launch of Skills for Scotland: A Lifelong Skills Strategy highlighted the importance of economic pull - stimulating demand for skills from employers and  improving the utilisation of skills in the workplace. The results of the 2006 Skills Survey underpin the importance of this issue. The 2006 Skills Survey is a valuable addition to the evidence base. Professor Felstead’s work highlights Scottish workers’ views on the qualifications, skills and training associated with their job. It provides a valuable complement to the views of Scottish employers.

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Futureskills Scotland Expert Briefing: Skills in Context - The paper, presented by Michael Davis of the Centre for Enterprise, reviews the importance of skills in terms of explaining the moderate productivity performance of the UK.  A number of crucial points are made along the way:

• productivity performance is not determined by skills level alone. Indeed, much of the UK’s productivity gap with America, France and Germany is for reasons other than skills
• skills are often a lower-order concern in company decision-making, behind product market strategy and the organisation of the production process
• a purely demand-led approach might not lead to the Government’s stated desire for a highly skilled workforce. Some employers can choose a low-skill route which is profitable for their business

So, what might we do? The paper concludes with a restatement of the importance of skills in personal, social and economic terms. It suggests that any strategy for skills needs to ensure that the supply of skills is capable of adapting and responding to demand; it also highlights the importance of creating the conditions which encourage employers to demand more highly-skilled workers.

eb_uses_and_abuses_forecasting_thumb Futureskills Scotland Expert Briefing: Uses and Abuses of Forecasting - This report examines the different methods by which forecasts can be prepared, the risks to forecasting and how to interpret the results. It also examines the potential for preparing forecasts for employment in Scotland. Forecasts are not just about how we expect the world to be but also inform how we might change it. It is important to understand the difference and the ability to form any views about what will or might or could happen. First, an assessment of the accuracy of any data is needed, and particularly how consistent it is over time. Second, not all data series can be forecast. Finally, even if the system has a straightforward relationship between its drivers and the variable of interest - for example output drives employment - this pushes the problem back to forecasting output and in turn the drivers of output and so on and so On. Interpreting the results of any forecasting exercise means being aware of these limitations and how important they are. Judging the performance of a forecast can be tricky if it is used as a guide to policy making. The purpose of the policy will be to adjust the existing parameters of the system, by providing more training for example, which will change the outcome in comparison with what was previously expected. Employment in Scotland is not measured with certainty - different measurement systems have produced different results. A  merged series can be created, and does show an upward trend. However an examination of the rate of change shows great  variability. This suggests that levels are fairly stable but change can go in either direction in any year. It will require judgement to address the extent to which stable trends could be affected by new forms of structural change which are not already embedded in the system. Year to year changes will much more difficult to model at any level.
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Futureskills Scotland Expert Briefing: Public Policy, Training and Skill Formation - Challenging Some Current Myths - Expert Briefing paper, by Professor David Ashton, looking into skills-related "myths". 

David Ashton draws upon his wealth of experience and detailed knowledge to present a challenging analysis of public policy in the field of training and skills formation. Professor Ashton pinpoints a popular myth that all training is good and more training is always better in all companies. He suggests that the common belief that public policy should be based simply on encouraging more employers to train more workers more often, springs from this mythical base.

His analysis also brings into question the perceived superiority or efficiency of formalised training as opposed to informal training. He highlights that larger companies operate on a more formal basis than smaller companies. In very small companies, especially those where an owner/manager has principal responsibility and knows most/all of the staff, informal approaches to training may be both most appropriate and most effective.  The paper concludes with some thoughts for policy makers on potential ways to improve the effective delivery of skills into the workplace.

eb_skills_global_economy_thumb Futureskills Scotland Expert Briefing: Skills in a Global Economy - Expert Briefing paper, by Chris Humphries CBE, on Skills in a global economy. Chris Humphries highlights the ageing population and shifts in the patterns of industries and jobs as two, related trends that demand particular attention. When dealing with population ageing he rightly highlights the international dimension of this issue: population ageing is something facing most European nations. He also emphasises the opportunities that ‘positive’ ageing presents.  On the changing structure of industries and jobs, Chris Humphries makes two important points. First, the way in which the economy is changing is often misunderstood. While there is ever increasing demand for people with high level skills, there is also a growing need for people to do jobs that typically need lower level skills.  Secondly, the need to replace people who leave jobs – because they retire, move to another job etc. – creates many more vacancies and training needs than the ‘new’ jobs that arise from growing industries and occupations.  (2005, 60 pages)
eb_scotlands_IB_claimants_thumb Futureskills Scotland Expert Briefing: Scotland's Incapacity Benefit Claimants - Expert Briefing paper, by Professor Steve Fothergill, on Scotland's Incapacity Benefits claimants.  The core of Professor Fothergill's argument is that a substantial proportion of IB claimants are 'hidden unemployed': variations in the proportion of people claiming IB across the country seem best explained by variations in the level of demand for labour. He presents explanations for the rise in IB numbers and the variation in claimant rates across the country, as well as outlining options for bringing down the numbers. It is a challenging analysis and a welcome contribution to the debate in Scotland. (2005, 16 pages)
eb_skills_modern_economy_thumb Futureskills Scotland Expert Briefing: The Demand for and Use of Skills in the Modern Economy - Expert Briefing paper, by Professor Francis Green, outlining his thoughts on the demand for and use of skills in the modern economy.  Professor Green's main conclusion is that skill levels, and their use, has been rising for decades; the briefing goes on to outline how this is manifested in the UK labour market and what effect these developments have had on the UK labour force and on employers. (2005, 16 pages)



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