Labour Market Projections to 2014 Published

The latest labour market projections from Futureskills Scotland were published today.  Labour Market Projections to 2014 provides evidence-based estimates of future labour market trends in Scotland.

The report presents a picture of how the labour market is expected to change between 2004 and 2009 and 2004 and 2014. It highlights the main historical trends between 1981 and 2003 to provide a context for the projections and describes what the latest economic projections tell us about how employment will change in the future, highlighting the likely areas of growth and decline in both industries and occupations.

The picture of the future we present uses economic models to make projections of what might happen. These projections are an informed estimate of the future based on what has happened in the past. They should not be viewed as facts waiting to happen but rather an indication of what might occur in the future. It is impossible to give detailed and wholly robust projections of the number of job openings in the future.

Key messages from Labour Market Projections to 2014 are below; for more detailed data and analysis please visit the report page from our Skills for the Future area.

It is likely that in Scotland’s labour market there will be:

• A slight slowdown in the rate of growth of employment in Scotland compared to previous years.
• Modest growth in the number of jobs.
• Considerable demand for employees to fill jobs which become vacant.
• A continued transfer of jobs from primary and manufacturing to services but at a slower rate than in the past.
• A continuation of the recent trends of growth in professional and service orientated occupations and decline in skilled trades and elementary occupations, again at a slower rate.
• A slight increase in the population – driven by inward migration – before it starts to decline again after 2019.
• A closing of the gap between male and female activity rates by 2015.