Crisis, What Crisis? Scotland's Population is Rising

Scotland’s population is rising. The latest figures show that between 2001 and 2005 it increased by 31,000 (0.6%). In 2004-05, it rose by 16,000. Why all the talk of a ‘population crisis’?

Scotland’s population had been falling slowly for most of the time since the mid-1970s. By 2002 it was around 180,000 lower than 30 years earlier.

In 2003, the General Register for Scotland and the Government Actuary Department predicted that Scotland’s population would be 5.0 million today; under five million in 2009; and 4.9 million by 2020.

But Scotland’s population today is close to 5.1 million with the latest projections showing it rising to 5.13 million in 2020 before falling below five million in 2036.

What has changed? The main development has been the rise in migration to Scotland. The 2003 projections assumed that 2,000 more people would leave Scotland each year than came here. But in 2003-04, net in-migration totalled 26,000, the largest number ever, followed by a net inflow of 19,000 in 2004-05. One reason for historically high migration is that citizens of the 10 states which joined the European Union in 2004 can live and work in Scotland. The 2005 projections assume that from 2008 there will be a net inflow to people of 4,000 each year.

In addition to higher migration, the birth rate has edged up slightly since 2002.

What about the working age population? It is expected to remain close to its current level for the next 15 years, but by 2031 it will be 250,000 (8%) lower than today. That doesn’t mean Scotland is about to run out of people to do jobs. Although there is a record high 2.4 million people in work, there are still around 700,000 working age people not in work. Half of them say they would work if they could find a job.

While the total population will remain close to its current level for the next 15 years, latest figures. The number of workers aged 16-29 and 30-44 will fall by 8% and 14%, respectively, and the number between 45 and retirement age will rise by 19%. Will this adversely affect the economy? As the Scottish Executive’s Framework for Economic Development in Scotland makes clear, “ageing does not pose a fundamental problem to economic development.”

What about the core age groups for post-school education and training? The number of 16-18s will remain at its 2005 level until 2011 before starting to fall. The number of 19-24s will rise until 2011 and then fall. So, the core age groups will remain close to their current size beyond the current decade.

Futureskills Scotland
May 2006