Labour Market Projections 2004

Labour Market Projections 2004 - key messages:

• All of the new jobs growth will be outside of rural Scotland, as the number of jobs in rural areas will remain broadly the same
• The service sector will continue to be the biggest source of employment in Scotland
• Employment growth will be strongest in occupations that are likely to require higher levels of skills and qualifications (like managerial & professional jobs)
• Although Scotland's population is falling very slowly, the size of the workforce has grown steadily since 1981, mainly due to more women joining the jobs market

This report presents a picture of Scotland's future jobs market. It provides information on past and future trends as well as the latest statistics on employment. Looking back, Futureskills Scotland analysed the period between 1981 and 2003 and considered how employment trends will change during 2003 to 2008, highlighting the likeliest areas of growth and decline. Remember, projections cannot accurately predict the future. However, they can give you a broad indication of likely future trends.

What is likely to happen to employment in Scotland in the period up to 2008? It is projected that the total number of jobs will rise to just over 2.5 million. All of the new jobs will be outside of rural Scotland, as the number of jobs in rural areas is projected to remain broadly the same (at around 300,000). There will be many job openings available over this period. Job opportunities over the next few years will come from two routes; the first of these is a need for workers to fill the jobs of those who leave a sector to work in a different industry or who retire from work completely. This is by far the biggest source of employment opportunities and will provide jobs in all sectors, even those which are in decline. The second source is a need for workers to do new jobs (those which do not exist at present but which are created by, say, a business expanding and taking on more staff, or by a company setting up operations in Scotland and staffing the new workplace).  Fewer opportunities will be created via this route.

Overall, the service sector will continue to be the biggest source of employment in Scotland. Within the service sector, the biggest growth in job opportunities will be in Retail and Distribution; Banking & Insurance; Business Services and Health & Education. Over the last 20 years, jobs in skilled trades, operative and elementary occupations have decreased, while professional and personal service occupations have grown. These trends will continue. In fact, employment growth will be strongest in jobs that are likely to require higher levels of skills and qualifications, like managerial and professional occupations.

 Who will fill these jobs and carry out these occupations? Scotland's population fell slightly from 5.18 million in 1981 to 5.05 million in 2003. By 2008, the figure is expected to fall slightly again, but will not drop below 5 million. However, despite this fall, the overall size of the workforce has grown steadily since 1981, mainly due to more women joining the jobs market.

More details about the Scottish Labour Market 2003 can be found in the Summary Report and the Full Report below. For further information about Futureskills Scotland, please Contact Us.

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